Market research The size of the Russian e-commerce market for 1H2019
The main results of the Russian e-commerce market for the 1st half of 2019.
Figures for the first half of 2019
- The number of orders is 191 million (almost the same as for the entire 2016)
- The dynamics of the number of orders + 44% (a record for the entire time of observation) to the same period in 2018.
- The dynamics of the average check is minus 13% (the check is decreasing throughout the market, but at different speeds — this is due to the fact that customers order more often and smaller) by the same period in 2018.
- The volume in rubles 725 billion rubles
- Динамика в рублях +26%
- The rise in growth rates of market leaders: primarily Wildberries, Ozon and Apteka.ru (tripled). Their total growth amounted to 107% compared to the first half of last year against 37% for them in 2016-2017. Wildberries «grew up» to 5,000 points of delivery (the news was yesterday) from 1,600 at the end of last year, Ozone greatly increased the frequency of orders by increasing the number of points of delivery and simplifying delivery (premium subscription).
- ... which «dragged» the whole market behind itself: the growth of TOP500 outside TOP3 amounted to 21% in the number of orders against 14% for the whole of 2018 (the second half of the year — 16%). We said last year: «We can get a situation where large stores, increasing their market share, set the standard for consumer experience in the market, which leads to an increase in familiarity and, consequently, in the frequency of online orders for the average consumer.» That is exactly what happened. And the beneficiaries of this growth are the entire e-commerce market.
- The growth in the share of pick-up, which continues for the fourth year in a row, leads to a decrease in the average check: for consumers, buying through the Internet becomes routine, so the number of small orders is constantly growing.
- The most interesting and most important thing for the market: this is the share of Wildberries. According to the results of the first half of 2019, it amounted to almost 31% in the number of orders. According to this indicator, Wildberries is a leader by a huge margin (in terms of the number of orders this year, Wildberries will be noticeably more than the total number of online orders sending orders through Russian Post). The share of the money is less because in Wildberries the average bill is much lower than the market.
In preparing the figures for 2019, we recalculated data for 2018, taking into account the last quarter and taking into account the revaluation of the long tail, which slightly increased our estimates. In particular, the market volume for 2018 in parcels: 301 million, in money 1.3 trillion. Dynamics by 2017 + 28% in parcels, + 22% in money. The main reason for the revaluation is the accelerated growth of the entire market and leading stores in the last quarter.
«Acceleration of market dynamics was primarily ensured by the rapid growth of several large online retailers — at the level of 100% per year or more. The intensification of their marketing and infrastructure efforts resonated with customers who have accumulated a critical mass of online shopping experience and trust in them. If in the market as a whole, the number of online orders for the I half of 2019 increased by 59 million compared to the same period in 2018, then three fast-growing projects — wildberries.ru, ozon.ru and apteka.ru — added 43 million orders in total, i.e. nearly three quarters (73%) of the total growth. What is important — the growth of leaders is not cannibalizing yet: the growth rates of other TOP500 participants have also increased. »
«The most interesting thing on the market for me is the routine of online shopping for tens of millions of users by improving their experience, standardizing it with the largest stores. This has given us an acceleration in the growth of online trading in 2019 (and at the end of 2018), and this acceleration will continue in the next few years. »
These data were obtained by the comprehensive Data Insight methodology, which is based on the analysis of the number of online orders in Russian online stores, the data of the stores themselves, and web statistics data and are part of the project «Top100 Online Stores in Russia» (website is in Russian language)
As part of this project, we take into account sales of nearly 200,000 online stores on the Russian Internet with a detailed analysis of the largest 3,000 stores. The data presented takes into account sales of tangible goods in Russia by Russian sellers and does not take into account sales of digital goods, travel packages, hotels and tickets, purchases in foreign online stores, as well as sales of Russian online stores to other countries. The data presented do not take into account the delivery of finished food (but take into account food purchases).